Sensitivity

Base, Upside and Downside drivers, each backed by evidence · 2026–2032

How to read this

scenario framing

Every driver has three cases. The base case is what the reported P&L uses. Upside and downside bracket the outcome. Each row carries the reasoning and named sources behind the number, so the range is evidence-backed rather than arbitrary.

Customer economics

churn, CAC, unit sales, recurring payers

Base

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032
Churn rate0% churn assumed for early-stage; small customer base with high-touch relationships.Sources: CustomerGauge, BillingPlatform	0%	0%	5%	5%	7%	7%	7%
CAC scale-upCAC €18K→€11K; declining scale-up CAC reflects learning curve, improved sales materials, and repeat-customer efficiency.Sources: Martal Group: B1.75B CAC	€15,776	€14,899	€13,146	€12,270	€11,394	€10,517	€9,641
CAC industrialCAC €35K→€21K; higher initial industrial CAC declining as reputation builds and sales cycles shorten.Sources: Martal Group, Apollo: Biotech Sales, BioStrata	€30,675	€28,922	€26,293	€24,540	€21,911	€20,158	€18,405
Scale-up unit salesGradual ramp 0→40 units over 2026–2032; conservative adoption curve for a novel biotech product.Sources: GFI: Fermentation Industry, RethinkX	0	0.9	2.6	6.1	17.5	26.3	35.1
Industrial unit salesIndustrial units start 2028 post-validation; accelerating to 44 by 2032 as the market matures.Sources: GFI, McKinsey: Biotech Economics	0	0	2.6	4.4	8.8	22.8	38.6
Recurring fee payersCumulative units net of churn: prior × (1 − churn) + new pre-ind + new industrial.Sources: Formula-driven	0	0.9	6.1	16.3	41.3	87.1	153.7

Upside

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032
Churn rateLower churn (0–5%) reflects stronger product-market fit and stickier relationships.Sources: CustomerGauge, Emulent: IVD Retention	0%	0%	3%	3%	5%	5%	5%
CAC scale-upCAC €15K→€8K; faster decline from brand recognition, referrals, and streamlined sales.Sources: Martal Group: B1.75B CAC	€13,146	€12,270	€10,517	€9,641	€8,764	€7,888	€7,011
CAC industrialCAC €30K→€16K; lower industrial CAC from established reputation and shorter cycles.Sources: Martal Group, DevriX, BioStrata	€26,293	€24,540	€21,034	€19,281	€17,528	€15,776	€14,023
Scale-up unit sales20% uplift on base scale-up sales; faster adoption from stronger market pull.Sources: GFI, RethinkX	0	0.9	3.5	7	21	31.6	42.1
Industrial unit sales20% uplift on base industrial sales; accelerated conversion from successful deployments.Sources: GFI, McKinsey	0	0	3.5	5.3	10.5	27.2	46.5
Recurring fee payersCumulative units net of churn.Sources: Formula-driven	0	0.9	7.9	19.9	50.5	106.7	189.8

Downside

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032
Churn rateHigher churn (5–15%) reflects regulatory setbacks, product issues, or competitive pressure.Sources: BillingPlatform, CustomerGauge	5%	5%	9%	9%	14%	14%	14%
CAC scale-upCAC €22K→€15K; slower decline due to longer sales cycles and more required proof points.Sources: DevriX, Apollo	€19,281	€18,405	€17,528	€15,776	€14,899	€14,023	€13,146
CAC industrialCAC €42K→€28K; cautious enterprise buyers requiring extensive validation.Sources: Martal Group, BioStrata	€36,810	€35,057	€33,304	€30,675	€28,922	€26,293	€24,540
Scale-up unit sales20% reduction on base scale-up sales; slower adoption from market skepticism or delays.Sources: RethinkX, McKinsey	0	0.9	1.8	5.3	14	21	28.1
Industrial unit sales20% reduction on base industrial sales; longer enterprise procurement cycles.Sources: McKinsey, GFI	0	0	1.8	3.5	7	18.4	30.7
Recurring fee payersCumulative units net of churn.Sources: Formula-driven	0	0.9	4.3	12.6	31.8	66.4	115.2

Bioreactor economics

pricing per unit + COGS %

Base

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032
Scale-up upfront€165k scale-up upfront covers a 50–500L pilot bioreactor; industry range €100k–500k.Sources: Excedr, INFORS HT, PatSnap	€438,212	€442,594	€447,020	€451,490	€456,005	€460,565	€465,170
Scale-up recurring€100k/yr recurring: maintenance, consumables, calibration, single-use, software, service.Sources: Excedr, INFORS HT, Solaris	€438,212	€442,594	€447,020	€451,490	€456,005	€460,565	€465,170
Industrial upfront€800k industrial system (1,000–2,000L) with CIP/SIP, automation, ancillaries.Sources: Cellbase, GFI: Fermentation TEA, EquipNet	€701,139	€708,150	€715,231	€722,384	€729,608	€736,904	€744,273
Industrial recurring€500k/yr industrial recurring: media, single-use consumables, maintenance, utilities, QC.Sources: BioProcess Intl, PMC	€438,212	€442,594	€447,020	€451,490	€456,005	€460,565	€465,170
Supplies COGS %TEM-derived: operational cost/L drops €14.18 (scale-up) → €1.66 (2028) → €0.15 (2032).Sources: Sartorius, In Practise	42%	39%	33%	28%	23%	21%	19%
Upfront COGS %TEM-derived: upfront cost declines as bioreactor standardization increases at industrial scale.Sources: Guiding Metrics, IQVIA	28%	26%	21%	17%	14%	12%	11%

Upside

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032
Scale-up upfront15% premium: brand positioning and ecosystem lock-in; top vendors hold 45%+ share.Sources: Mordor, M&M	€503,943	€508,983	€514,073	€519,214	€524,405	€529,650	€534,946
Scale-up recurring15% premium: premium support tiers, priority service, faster consumable replenishment.Sources: Mordor, BioProcess Intl	€503,943	€508,983	€514,073	€519,214	€524,405	€529,650	€534,946
Industrial upfront15% premium: ecosystem packages (hardware + digital twins + analytics); high switching costs.Sources: Mordor, M&M, Sartorius	€806,310	€814,373	€822,516	€830,741	€839,049	€847,439	€855,914
Industrial recurring15% premium: validated-workflow lock-in; 75–80% of vendor revenue is recurring.Sources: In Practise, BioProcess Intl	€503,943	€508,983	€514,073	€519,214	€524,405	€529,650	€534,946
Supplies COGS %TEM-derived: 5–7pp below base; faster single-use and automation adoption.Sources: PharmTech, BioPharm Intl	37%	34%	26%	21%	18%	15%	13%
Upfront COGS %TEM-derived: 5–8pp below base; standardized reactor families reduce custom engineering.Sources: BioProcess Intl, C&EN	23%	21%	15%	11%	9%	7%	7%

Downside

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032
Scale-up upfront15% discount: competitive pressure by new entrants; capex reluctance gives buyers leverage.Sources: Statifacts, BioProcess Intl	€372,480	€376,205	€379,967	€383,766	€387,604	€391,481	€395,395
Scale-up recurring15% discount: commoditization of basic stirred-tank bioreactors; volume tiering standard.Sources: Sartorius, Statifacts	€372,480	€376,205	€379,967	€383,766	€387,604	€391,481	€395,395
Industrial upfront15% discount: buyer leverage during capex reluctance; lower-cost SU devices #1 interest.Sources: BioProcess Intl, Sartorius, Statifacts	€595,968	€601,928	€607,947	€614,026	€620,167	€626,369	€632,632
Industrial recurring15% discount: competitive vendor switching; standardized consumable alternatives.Sources: Sartorius, In Practise	€372,480	€376,205	€379,967	€383,766	€387,604	€391,481	€395,395
Supplies COGS %TEM-derived: 5pp above base; slower scale-up, higher consumables costs.Sources: PharmaSource, SpendEdge	47%	45%	39%	35%	31%	28%	26%
Upfront COGS %TEM-derived: 5–6pp above base; custom bioreactor development costs remain elevated.Sources: PMC, BioPharma APAC	33%	31%	26%	23%	21%	19%	17%

Product yields

bioactive yield as % of liters produced

Base

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032
Glycoproteins yield1 g/L (0.1%); functional protein + glycoprotein fraction. Genetic engineering drives step-ups.Sources: J. Industrial Biotechnology	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
EVs yield0.05 g/L (0.005%); extracellular-vesicle recovery. Strain engineering improves recovery.Sources: J. Extracell. Biology	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Lipoprotein yield0.5 g/L (0.05%); product fat globule membrane extraction.Sources: MDPI Animals	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Oligosaccharide yield0.05 g/L (0.005%); process yield uplift, 3% YoYSources: Nature Sci. Reports	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Upside

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032
Glycoproteins yield12% YoY pre-2029; post-2029 genetic breakthrough accelerates to 10× base (1%) by 2032.Sources: J. Industrial Biotechnology	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%	1%
EVs yield12% YoY; post-2029 engineered cell lines with enhanced vesicle budding; 38× bioreactor uplift.Sources: J. Extracell. Biology	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Lipoprotein yield12% YoY; post-2029 cell-free synthesis + engineered membrane-protein secretion, 10× target.Sources: MDPI Animals	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Oligosaccharide yield12% YoY; post-2029 leverages E. coli/yeast HMO platforms (>60 g/L 2'-FL) to 10× target.Sources: Nature Sci. Reports	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Downside

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032
Glycoproteins yield3% YoY: glycosylation complexity; early A. oryzae functional protein at 25 mg/L shows the difficulty.Sources: J. Industrial Biotechnology	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
EVs yield3% YoY: fundamental limits in mammalian EV secretion; scalable isolation adds losses.Sources: J. Extracell. Biology	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Lipoprotein yield3% YoY: aggregate-prone membrane proteins; CHO batch yields only 10–50 mg/L.Sources: MDPI Animals	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Oligosaccharide yield3% YoY: process yield uplift, 3% YoYSources: Nature Sci. Reports	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Headcount

R&D and operations FTE

Base

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032
R&D headcountR&D 7→15 FTEs; plateaus at 2028 reflecting full lab and development capacity.	6.1	7.9	13.2	13.2	13.2	13.2	13.2
Ops headcountOps 6→28 FTEs; continuous growth supporting production ramp to commercial scale.	5.3	6.1	10.5	15.8	19.3	21.9	24.5

Upside

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032
R&D headcount1.2× base; faster R&D scaling for accelerated development.	7	9.6	15.8	15.8	15.8	15.8	15.8
Ops headcount1.2× base; larger ops team for higher production volumes.	6.1	7	12.3	19.3	22.8	26.3	29.8

Downside

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032
R&D headcount0.8× base; leaner R&D reflecting constrained funding.	5.3	6.1	10.5	10.5	10.5	10.5	10.5
Ops headcount0.8× base; smaller ops reflecting reduced production scale.	4.4	5.3	8.8	12.3	15.8	17.5	19.3

Funding

VC fundraise aimed per scenario (€M)

Base

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032
VC fundraise (aimed)Seed €5M (2026), Series A €15M (2028), Series B €30M (2030); staged to milestones.	€4.4M	€0.0M	€13.1M	€0.0M	€26.3M	€0.0M	€0.0M

Upside

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032
VC fundraise (aimed)Larger rounds €7M / €30M / €60M; accelerated regulatory approval supports larger raises.	€6.1M	€0.0M	€26.3M	€0.0M	€52.6M	€0.0M	€0.0M

Downside

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032
VC fundraise (aimed)Reduced rounds €3.5M / €10M; no Series B due to slower traction and regulatory delays.	€3.1M	€0.0M	€8.8M	€0.0M	€0.0M	€0.0M	€0.0M

Source: NOVAKERN financial model, 03_Sensitivity. Reasoning and sources are transcribed from the model's evidence columns.