Base case: NOVAKERN financial model
2032 revenue €118.6M · break-even 2029
Scenario
Production capacity
NOVAKERN's own fermentation capacity and utilization · 2024–2032 · fixed across scenarios
Internal reactors
count by size and year
| reactor · size | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benchtop (Prototype) · 15 L | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.6 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Pilot (XL) · 100 L | n/a | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Scale-up · 500 L | n/a | 0.9 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 4.4 | 7 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 8.8 |
| Industrial · 10,000 L | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
Cartridges per reactor
deployed cartridges
| 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benchtop (Prototype)Max cartridges per reactor: 1. | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Pilot (XL)Max cartridges per reactor: 1. | n/a | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Scale-upMax cartridges per reactor: 8. | n/a | 0.9 | 0.9 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| IndustrialMax cartridges per reactor: 700. | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 6.1 | 61.4 | 306.8 | 613.5 |
Production yield %
efficiency ramp per reactor type
| 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benchtop (Prototype) | 1% | 5% | 9% | 47% | 79% | 93% | 93% | 93% | 93% |
| Pilot (XL) | n/a | 5% | 9% | 47% | 79% | 93% | 93% | 93% | 93% |
| Scale-up | n/a | 5% | 9% | 47% | 79% | 93% | 93% | 93% | 93% |
| Industrial | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 93% | 93% | 93% | 93% |
Each reactor type ramps from ~5% efficiency to 100% as the process matures.
Output per cartridge
L/day contributed by type
| 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| From prototypeOutput per cartridge: 0.25 L. | 0 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.33 | 0.56 | 0.66 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| From Pilot (XL)Output per cartridge: 2 L. | 0 | 0.18 | 0.35 | 1.75 | 2.98 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| From scale-upOutput per cartridge: 10 L. | 0 | 0.44 | 1.75 | 105 | 298 | 561 | 701 | 701 | 701 |
| From industrialOutput per cartridge: 20 L. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 123 | 1,227 | 12,270 | 24,540 |
Total capacity
L/day, L/year + extraction-equivalent output
| 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total product produced (L/day) | 0 | 0.64 | 2.17 | 107 | 302 | 684 | 1,928 | 12,971 | 25,241 |
| Total product (L/year) | 1.58 | 229 | 781 | 38,611 | 108,548 | 246,337 | 694,127 | 4,669,584 | 9,086,758 |
| Extraction-equivalent output (20 L basis) | 0 | 0 | 0.1 | 5.4 | 15.1 | 34.2 | 96.4 | 648.6 | 1,262 |
Source: NOVAKERN financial model, 08_Production Capacity. This is in-house capacity; licensed-reactor output sits on the Bioreactors tab.