Key assumptions
The drivers behind the active scenario, in plain language
Headcount & salary
how personnel cost is built · fixed across scenarios
Salaries start at €47,500 and escalate 5% per year. Fully loaded cost per FTE adds 30% social charges. Headcount splits into an R&D team that plateaus at 15 and an operations team that scales with production. This schedule is fixed across scenarios.
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary per year | €35,961 | €37,760 | €39,648 | €41,630 | €43,711 | €45,898 | €48,192 | €50,601 | €53,132 | €55,788 |
| Total cost per FTE | €46,750 | €49,088 | €51,542 | €54,119 | €56,825 | €59,667 | €62,649 | €65,782 | €69,071 | €72,525 |
| R&D headcount | 1.8 | 1.8 | 3.5 | 6.1 | 7.9 | 13.2 | 13.2 | 13.2 | 13.2 | 13.2 |
| R&D personnel cost | €0.1M | €0.1M | €0.2M | €0.4M | €0.5M | €0.9M | €0.9M | €1.0M | €1.0M | €1.1M |
| Operations headcount | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 5.3 | 6.1 | 10.5 | 15.8 | 19.3 | 21.9 | 24.5 |
| Operations personnel cost | €0.0M | €0.0M | €0.1M | €0.3M | €0.4M | €0.7M | €1.1M | €1.4M | €1.7M | €2.0M |
Customer economics
churn and customer-acquisition cost
Values below are the base-case drivers.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Churn rate | 0% | 0% | 5% | 5% | 8% | 8% | 8% |
| CAC per scale-up customer | €16,920 | €15,980 | €14,100 | €13,160 | €12,220 | €11,280 | €10,340 |
| CAC per industrial customer | €32,900 | €31,020 | €28,200 | €26,320 | €23,500 | €21,620 | €19,740 |
Bioreactor pricing
per-unit list prices
Scale-up (500 L) and industrial (10,000 L) reactors each carry an upfront fee, an annual recurring licensing fee, and a supplies line. Values below are the base-case drivers.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scale-up - upfront | €399,500 | €403,495 | €407,530 | €411,605 | €415,721 | €419,879 | €424,077 |
| Scale-up - recurring | €399,500 | €403,495 | €407,530 | €411,605 | €415,721 | €419,879 | €424,077 |
| Scale-up - supplies | €103,870 | €104,909 | €105,957 | €107,017 | €108,088 | €109,168 | €110,260 |
| Industrial - upfront | €639,200 | €645,592 | €652,048 | €658,568 | €665,154 | €671,806 | €678,524 |
| Industrial - recurring | €399,500 | €403,495 | €407,530 | €411,605 | €415,721 | €419,879 | €424,077 |
| Industrial - supplies | €559,300 | €564,892 | €570,542 | €576,248 | €582,010 | €587,830 | €593,708 |
Bioreactor COGS %
cost of goods as % of revenue, declining with scale
Both upfront and supplies COGS fall as production standardizes. Values below are the base-case drivers.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upfront COGS % | 35% | 33% | 28% | 25% | 22% | 20% | 18% |
| Supplies COGS % | 50% | 48% | 42% | 38% | 33% | 30% | 28% |
Production yields
bioactive yield as % of liters produced
Each liter yields a small fraction of high-value bioactives. Values below are the base-case drivers. The upside case assumes a 2029 genetic-engineering breakthrough (see Sensitivity).
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glycoproteins yield | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Peptides yield | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Lipoproteins yield | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Oligosaccharides yield | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Source: NOVAKERN financial model, sheets 06_Customer Economics, 07_Bioreactor Economics, 09_Headcount Plan, 03_Sensitivity. These drivers feed the P&L on the P&L tab.