Base case: NOVAKERN financial model
2032 revenue €118.6M · break-even 2029
Scenario
Bioreactor economics
The platform engine: pricing, units, margin · 2026–2032
Reactor types
working volume per type
| Reactor type | Volume |
|---|---|
| Benchtop (Prototype) | 10–15 L |
| Pilot (XL) | 100 L |
| Scale-up | 500 L |
| Production | 10,000 L |
Pricing (per unit)
upfront, recurring, supplies
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scale-up - upfront | €399,500 | €403,495 | €407,530 | €411,605 | €415,721 | €419,879 | €424,077 |
| Scale-up - recurring | €399,500 | €403,495 | €407,530 | €411,605 | €415,721 | €419,879 | €424,077 |
| Scale-up - supplies | €103,870 | €104,909 | €105,957 | €107,017 | €108,088 | €109,168 | €110,260 |
| Industrial - upfront | €639,200 | €645,592 | €652,048 | €658,568 | €665,154 | €671,806 | €678,524 |
| Industrial - recurring | €399,500 | €403,495 | €407,530 | €411,605 | €415,721 | €419,879 | €424,077 |
| Industrial - supplies | €559,300 | €564,892 | €570,542 | €576,248 | €582,010 | €587,830 | €593,708 |
Units deployed
ending active reactors by type
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scale-up - ending active | 0 | 0.9 | 3.7 | 10.1 | 28.2 | 54.2 | 87.8 |
| Industrial - ending active | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 7.4 | 16.2 | 39.5 | 77.8 |
Revenue split
upfront + recurring + supplies (€M)
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upfront revenue | €0.0M | €0.4M | €3.0M | €5.8M | €14.1M | €28.3M | €44.0M |
| Recurring revenue | €0.0M | €0.0M | €0.4M | €2.7M | €7.3M | €18.6M | €39.7M |
| Supplies revenue | €0.0M | €0.1M | €0.3M | €2.3M | €4.8M | €8.6M | €18.7M |
| Total bioreactor revenue | €0.0M | €0.5M | €3.7M | €10.8M | €26.1M | €55.5M | €102.4M |
COGS & margin
cost of goods and gross margin
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upfront COGS % | 35% | 33% | 28% | 25% | 22% | 20% | 18% |
| Supplies COGS % | 50% | 48% | 42% | 38% | 33% | 30% | 28% |
| Total COGS | €0.0M | €0.2M | €1.0M | €2.3M | €4.7M | €8.2M | €13.1M |
| Gross profit | €0.0M | €0.3M | €2.7M | €8.5M | €21.4M | €47.3M | €89.3M |
| Gross margin % | 0% | 64% | 74% | 78% | 82% | 85% | 87% |
Source: NOVAKERN financial model, 07_Bioreactor Economics.