Base case: NOVAKERN financial model
2032 revenue €118.6M · break-even 2029
Scenario
Revenue build-up
Two engines: product & bioactives + the bioreactor platform · €M unless noted
Revenue by engine
€M · product + bioreactor + other
The bioreactor platform (equipment + licensing) overtakes direct product sales from 2028 and drives the bulk of revenue by 2032.
Product engine: bioactive output
kg produced per year, by fraction
| kg / year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glycoproteins | n/a | n/a | n/a | 0.8 | 41.4 | 128.1 | 317 | 893.4 | 6,510.8 | 13,644.3 |
| Peptides | n/a | n/a | n/a | 0 | 2.1 | 6.3 | 15.2 | 45.9 | 330 | 687.1 |
| Lipoproteins | n/a | n/a | n/a | 0.4 | 20.8 | 62.6 | 152.2 | 458.6 | 3,300.5 | 6,870.9 |
| Oligosaccharides | n/a | n/a | n/a | 0 | 2.1 | 6.3 | 15.2 | 45.9 | 330 | 687.1 |
Product engine: revenue by bioactive
kg × price → revenue (€M)
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glycoproteinskg x price (per bioactive). | n/a | n/a | n/a | €0.0M | €0.0M | €0.1M | €0.2M | €0.6M | €4.0M | €7.7M |
| Peptideskg x price (per bioactive). | n/a | n/a | n/a | €0.0M | €0.0M | €0.0M | €0.0M | €0.0M | €0.2M | €0.3M |
| Lipoproteinskg x price (per bioactive). | n/a | n/a | n/a | €0.0M | €0.0M | €0.1M | €0.2M | €0.7M | €4.3M | €7.8M |
| Oligosaccharideskg x price (per bioactive). | n/a | n/a | n/a | €0.0M | €0.0M | €0.0M | €0.0M | €0.0M | €0.2M | €0.5M |
| Total product revenueSum of all product product revenue lines. | n/a | n/a | n/a | €0.0M | €0.1M | €0.2M | €0.5M | €1.3M | €8.8M | €16.2M |
| Product COGSWeighted COGS: each revenue line x its COGS %. | n/a | n/a | n/a | €0.0M | €0.0M | €0.1M | €0.1M | €0.2M | €1.1M | €1.6M |
| Product gross marginTotal product revenue - COGS. | n/a | n/a | n/a | €0.0M | €0.1M | €0.2M | €0.4M | €1.1M | €7.7M | €14.6M |
Bioreactor engine: revenue build-up
upfront + recurring + supplies (€M)
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upfront feeSales x upfront price per bioreactor type. | n/a | n/a | n/a | €0.0M | €0.4M | €3.0M | €5.8M | €14.1M | €28.3M | €44.0M |
| Recurring licensing feeActive customers x recurring fee per bioreactor type. | n/a | n/a | n/a | €0.0M | €0.0M | €0.4M | €2.7M | €7.3M | €18.6M | €39.7M |
| Bioreactor suppliesNew pre-ind. + prior-year industrial x (cell + medium cost). | n/a | n/a | n/a | €0.0M | €0.1M | €0.3M | €2.3M | €4.8M | €8.6M | €18.7M |
| Total bioreactor revenueUpfront + recurring licensing + supplies. | n/a | n/a | n/a | €0.0M | €0.5M | €3.7M | €10.8M | €26.1M | €55.5M | €102.4M |
| Bioreactor COGSUpfront COGS % x upfront + supplies COGS % x supplies. | n/a | n/a | n/a | €0.0M | €0.2M | €1.0M | €2.3M | €4.7M | €8.2M | €13.1M |
| Bioreactor gross marginTotal bioreactor revenue - COGS. | n/a | n/a | n/a | €0.0M | €0.3M | €2.7M | €8.5M | €21.4M | €47.3M | €89.3M |
Other revenue
grants & partnership milestones (€M)
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milestone payments (grants / partnerships)Milestone payments from grants and partnerships; hardcoded inputs. | €0.0M | €0.3M | €0.6M | €0.6M | €0.5M | €0.0M | €0.0M | €0.0M | €0.0M | €0.0M |
Source: NOVAKERN financial model, 04_Sales and Revenue. Revenue is reported from 2026.