Base case: NOVAKERN financial model
2032 revenue €118.6M · break-even 2029
Scenario
Financials
Forward model · 2026–2032 · all figures €M unless noted
Revenue 2032
€119M
base case
Gross margin 2032
88%
high-value mix
EBITDA positive
2029
turns profitable
Revenue CAGR
143%
2026–2032
Revenue by engine
€M · product + bioreactor + other
Gross margin
% of revenue
Topline KPIs
2026–2032, base case
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenue | €0.6M | €1.0M | €3.9M | €11.3M | €27.4M | €64.3M | €118.6M |
| Gross margin | 100% | 81% | 74% | 79% | 82% | 86% | 88% |
| EBITDA | −€1.0M | −€1.4M | −€0.4M | €4.5M | €16.3M | €45.5M | €89.7M |
| Cash on hand | €5.2M | €3.5M | €13.7M | €13.9M | €53.7M | €92.8M | €176.0M |
| Runway (months) | 36.4 | 16.6 | 38.6 | 27.8 | 74.4 | 87.2 | 115.3 |
| Headcount (FTE) | 12 | 17 | 26 | 32 | 38 | 41 | 45 |
| Active customers | 0 | 0.9 | 6.5 | 17.5 | 44.4 | 93.7 | 165.6 |
EBITDA & cash
€M · end-of-year
Key takeaways
- EBITDA positive in 2029. The bioreactor platform scales past fixed cost.
- Gross margin reaches 88% by 2032. High-value bioactives + platform, not commodity product.
- €119M revenue by 2032. ~143% CAGR from first revenue.
Source: NOVAKERN financial model, March 2026. Inflation, VAT, and taxes are excluded. Use the tabs above for the full P&L, driver assumptions, and sensitivity ranges.