Base case: NOVAKERN financial model
2032 revenue €118.6M · break-even 2029
Scenario
Profit & Loss
Full P&L 2023–2032 · €M unless noted (percentages as %)
Revenue & gross profit
sheet 02_Projections · with line assumptions
| €M unless noted | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenueSum of product revenue, bioreactor revenue, and other revenue (04_Sales and Revenue). | €0.0M | €0.3M | €0.6M | €0.6M | €1.0M | €3.9M | €11.3M | €27.4M | €64.3M | €118.6M |
| COGSSum of product and bioreactor COGS (04_Sales and Revenue). | €0.0M | €0.0M | €0.0M | €0.0M | €0.2M | €1.0M | €2.4M | €4.9M | €9.3M | €14.8M |
| Gross profitRevenue minus COGS. | €0.0M | €0.3M | €0.6M | €0.6M | €0.8M | €2.9M | €8.9M | €22.6M | €55.0M | €103.9M |
| Gross marginGross profit as % of revenue. | 0% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 81% | 74% | 79% | 82% | 86% | 88% |
Operating expenses: R&D
key personnel, depreciation, regulatory, other
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key personnelR&D personnel costs from 09_Headcount Plan. | €0.1M | €0.1M | €0.2M | €0.4M | €0.6M | €1.0M | €1.1M | €1.1M | €1.2M | €1.2M |
| DepreciationDepreciation expense from 11_Depreciation. | €0.0M | €0.0M | €0.0M | €0.1M | €0.3M | €0.9M | €1.6M | €2.4M | €3.3M | €4.1M |
| Regulatory approvalHardcoded per year: 0 -> 100K -> 200K -> 400K -> 300K flat. | €0.0M | €0.0M | €0.1M | €0.2M | €0.4M | €0.3M | €0.3M | €0.3M | €0.3M | €0.3M |
| Other R&D expensesHardcoded: 30K -> 50K -> 150K -> 150K -> 270K -> 300K flat. | €0.0M | €0.1M | €0.1M | €0.1M | €0.3M | €0.3M | €0.3M | €0.3M | €0.3M | €0.3M |
Operating expenses: Business Operations
personnel, legal, marketing/CAC, office, software, revenue share, support, misc
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key personnelBusiness Ops personnel costs from 09_Headcount Plan. | €0.1M | €0.1M | €0.1M | €0.4M | €0.5M | €0.8M | €1.3M | €1.7M | €2.0M | €2.3M |
| Legal & accounting (incl. patents)Hardcoded 2023-2025; from 2026: MAX(200K, 1.8% x total revenue). | €0.0M | €0.0M | €0.0M | €0.2M | €0.2M | €0.2M | €0.2M | €0.5M | €1.2M | €2.1M |
| Marketing & advertisingCAC cost from 06_Customer Economics + MAX(30K, 1% x revenue) for brand. | €0.0M | €0.0M | €0.0M | €0.0M | €0.0M | €0.2M | €0.3M | €0.7M | €1.5M | €2.4M |
| Office space & refurbishmentHardcoded 2023-2025; from 2026: 6,000 x total headcount. | €0.0M | €0.0M | €0.1M | €0.1M | €0.1M | €0.2M | €0.2M | €0.2M | €0.2M | €0.3M |
| Software & equipmentHardcoded 2023-2025; from 2026: MIN(5,000 x headcount, 150,000). | €0.0M | €0.0M | €0.0M | €0.1M | €0.1M | €0.1M | €0.1M | €0.1M | €0.1M | €0.1M |
| Collaborator revenue share2.5% of bioreactor revenue. | €0.0M | €0.0M | €0.0M | €0.0M | €0.0M | €0.1M | €0.3M | €0.7M | €1.4M | €2.6M |
| Bioreactor support & maintenance5% of recurring licensing fee. | €0.0M | €0.0M | €0.0M | €0.0M | €0.0M | €0.0M | €0.1M | €0.4M | €0.9M | €2.0M |
| Other / miscellaneousHardcoded 2023-2024; from 2025: 3% of all other OpEx lines. | €0.0M | €0.0M | €0.0M | €0.1M | €0.1M | €0.1M | €0.2M | €0.3M | €0.4M | €0.5M |
Result
OpEx total → profit → EBITDA
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total OpExSum of all R&D and Business Operations OpEx lines. | €0.3M | €0.3M | €0.7M | €1.7M | €2.5M | €4.3M | €6.0M | €8.7M | €12.8M | €18.3M |
| Profit (net)Gross profit minus total OpEx. | −€0.3M | −€0.0M | −€0.2M | −€1.2M | −€1.7M | −€1.4M | €2.9M | €13.9M | €42.2M | €85.5M |
| EBITDAEBITDA = profit + depreciation. | −€0.3M | −€0.0M | −€0.2M | −€1.0M | −€1.4M | −€0.4M | €4.5M | €16.3M | €45.5M | €89.7M |
| EBITDA %EBITDA as % of revenue. | 0% | −3% | −28% | −176% | −134% | −11% | 40% | 60% | 71% | 76% |
| Profit %Profit as % of revenue. | 0% | −7% | −30% | −202% | −162% | −35% | 26% | 51% | 66% | 72% |
Cash flow & runway
grants, fundraise, capex, cash, burn, runway
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GrantsLinked to 05_Funding - total cash grants. | €0.0M | €0.0M | €0.0M | €0.6M | €0.6M | €0.5M | €0.5M | €0.0M | €0.0M | €0.0M |
| VC fundraiseLinked to 05_Funding - total VC fundraise. | €0.0M | €0.0M | €0.0M | €5.5M | €0.0M | €15.0M | €0.0M | €30.0M | €0.0M | €0.0M |
| Capex (cash outflow)Total capex cash outflow (10_Capex), sign-reversed. | €0.0M | −€0.1M | €0.0M | −€1.0M | −€1.0M | −€4.9M | −€4.9M | −€6.5M | −€6.5M | −€6.5M |
| Cash on handPrior-year cash + profit + depreciation + capex + grants + fundraise. | €1.4M | €1.3M | €1.1M | €5.2M | €3.5M | €13.7M | €13.9M | €53.7M | €92.8M | €176.0M |
| Monthly burn rateTotal OpEx / 12. | €0.0M | €0.0M | €0.1M | €0.1M | €0.2M | €0.4M | €0.5M | €0.7M | €1.1M | €1.5M |
| Months of runwayCash on hand / monthly burn rate. | 66.7 | 50 | 18.4 | 36.4 | 16.6 | 38.6 | 27.8 | 74.4 | 87.2 | 115.3 |
Breakeven
first year each measure turns positive
- Annual profit breakeven2029
- Annual EBITDA breakeven2029
- Cumulative EBITDA breakeven2029
- Cumulative profit breakeven2030
Growth rate (CAGR)
compound annual revenue growth
- Revenue 2026–2032143%
CAGR is recomputed from the active scenario, anchored to the 2026 Series A year.
Source: NOVAKERN financial model, 02_Projections. 2023–2025 are pre-revenue build-up years. Inflation, VAT, and taxes are excluded.