Base case: NOVAKERN financial model
2032 revenue €118.6M · break-even 2029
Scenario
Customer economics
Churn, CAC and the active-customer base by segment · 2026–2032
Assumptions
churn and cost of acquisition
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Churn rate | 0% | 0% | 5% | 5% | 8% | 8% | 8% |
| CAC per scale-up customer | €16,920 | €15,980 | €14,100 | €13,160 | €12,220 | €11,280 | €10,340 |
| CAC per industrial customer | €32,900 | €31,020 | €28,200 | €26,320 | €23,500 | €21,620 | €19,740 |
Scale-up bioreactor (500 L)
beginning + new − churn = ending active customers
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beginning active customers | 0 | 0 | 0.9 | 3.7 | 10.1 | 28.2 | 54.2 |
| New sales | 0 | 0.9 | 2.8 | 6.6 | 18.8 | 28.2 | 37.6 |
| Churned customers | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0.2 | -0.8 | -2.1 | -4.1 |
| Ending active customers | 0 | 0.9 | 3.7 | 10.1 | 28.2 | 54.2 | 87.8 |
| CAC cost | €0.0M | €0.0M | €0.0M | €0.1M | €0.2M | €0.3M | €0.4M |
Industrial bioreactor (10,000 L)
beginning + new − churn = ending active customers
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beginning active customers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 7.4 | 16.2 | 39.5 |
| New sales | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 4.7 | 9.4 | 24.4 | 41.4 |
| Churned customers | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0.1 | -0.6 | -1.2 | -3 |
| Ending active customers | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 7.4 | 16.2 | 39.5 | 77.8 |
| CAC cost | €0.0M | €0.0M | €0.1M | €0.1M | €0.2M | €0.5M | €0.8M |
Summary
total active customers + total CAC cost
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total active customers | 0 | 0.9 | 6.5 | 17.5 | 44.4 | 93.7 | 165.6 |
| Total CAC cost | €0.0M | €0.0M | €0.1M | €0.2M | €0.5M | €0.8M | €1.2M |
Fractional customer counts reflect partial-year and churn-adjusted accounts in the model. This scenario reaches ~166 active customers by 2032.
Source: NOVAKERN financial model, 06_Customer Economics.